Once upon a time, say, last Thursday, February 27th (like, you know, recent), there was an American generated weather computer model that suggested that Knoxville and East Tennessee was going to receive nearly 7" of RAIN this week: namely, on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Fast forward to today, March 1st, and that SAME computer model says, "no, it's more like 0.72" of RAIN" for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday for Knoxville and East Tennessee...a reduction by about a factor of 10. BIG difference in opinion, don't you think, in just 3 days time?
Well, today, that SAME model is painting a NEW picture of a possible Blizzard of '93 style storm into East Tennessee for March 12th, 2020. The risk of showing you this picture causes some to overreact...while others will use it as clickbait, without any further explanation or context. What it tells me is this model is out to lunch. Sure, the battle between warm and cold exists in the month of March, it always does, so whipsaw model output is to be expected. However, it will change, just like the rainfall example above. Only this time, it has 1 to 2 weeks to change its mind. Besides, my takeaway from this (as has been since November 5th when my Winter Weather Outlook came out on CaptainAccurate.com) is that WINTER is not DEAD in March in East Tennessee, despite the many warm-ups we have planned in the short-term. I've said before, and I will say it again, Mother Nature can "pull the rug out from under you," weatherwise, if you're not paying attention.
Some people get mad at me that I don't hype up these fantasy model runs 1 to 2 weeks in advance. Well, that's just ridiculous. If you follow the model's logic, based on the rain example above, 17.9" of snow, as being model projected today, will probably be reduced by a factor of 10, giving us 1.79" of snow. Ha! If you have any questions, please let me know. Buckle you seatbelts. It's likely to be a wild and interesting month.
P.S. Historically, Knoxville averages 0.9" of snow in March and 0.5" of snow in April.
Captain Accurate Weather