Once upon a time, say, last Thursday, February 27th (like, you know, recent), there was an American generated weather computer model that suggested that Knoxville and East Tennessee was going to receive nearly 7" of RAIN this week: namely, on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Fast forward to today, March 1st, and that SAME computer model says, "no, it's more like 0.72" of RAIN" for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday for Knoxville and East Tennessee...a reduction by about a factor of 10. BIG difference in opinion, don't you think, in just 3 days time?
Well, today, that SAME model is painting a NEW picture of a possible Blizzard of '93 style storm into East Tennessee for March 12th, 2020. The risk of showing you this picture causes some to overreact...while others will use it as clickbait, without any further explanation or context. What it tells me is this model is out to lunch. Sure, the battle between warm and cold exists in the month of March, it always does, so whipsaw model output is to be expected. However, it will change, just like the rainfall example above. Only this time, it has 1 to 2 weeks to change its mind. Besides, my takeaway from this (as has been since November 5th when my Winter Weather Outlook came out on CaptainAccurate.com) is that WINTER is not DEAD in March in East Tennessee, despite the many warm-ups we have planned in the short-term. I've said before, and I will say it again, Mother Nature can "pull the rug out from under you," weatherwise, if you're not paying attention.
Some people get mad at me that I don't hype up these fantasy model runs 1 to 2 weeks in advance. Well, that's just ridiculous. If you follow the model's logic, based on the rain example above, 17.9" of snow, as being model projected today, will probably be reduced by a factor of 10, giving us 1.79" of snow. Ha! If you have any questions, please let me know. Buckle you seatbelts. It's likely to be a wild and interesting month.
P.S. Historically, Knoxville averages 0.9" of snow in March and 0.5" of snow in April.
3/1/2020 12:49:48 pm
March in east Tennessee is crazy but let's hope we dont have no more snow I've done mowed my grass once lol....just saw 2 robin birds in my yard old school hearsay is Robin's are a sign of spring guess we will see
3/1/2020 01:59:18 pm
I trust your weather forecast David your the best
3/2/2020 10:18:06 pm
3/1/2020 01:03:08 pm
What about weather for the cumberland plateau /Crossville?
3/1/2020 04:01:48 pm
Yes. Yes Yes. Bring on the big snow!! I will be praying that the model is right! It would be so nice to actually have snow!
3/1/2020 01:21:42 pm
Bring on the blizzard! We been needing one for a long time now. Needing to wash all the germs away! LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW!! 😁
3/1/2020 01:42:34 pm
As I would love to have something to write home about(I'm from Philly) it would be devastating to thousands of people in and around our area. When this happened in 93 here, many people including my aunt and uncle lost their electricity for a whole week. I would hate for that to happen again.
I remember the Blizzard of 1993 very very well. I was already at the hospital in Sevier County getting ready to give birth to my Blizzard Baby Girl. It was really bad outside. I also remember the hospital lost power and they had to run the hospital on generators. Some of the doctors and other staff had to spend a few nights at the hospital. It was an experience that’s for sure!
3/1/2020 03:22:36 pm
Does anyone remember the snow accumulation we had in early April 1984? 29" at our house. The 1993 storm dropped over 30" and we were stuck in San Antonio, unable to fly home for days.
3/1/2020 05:46:18 pm
You are the BEST when it comes to weather forecasting! I still refuse to watch WVLT since they let you go. Can’t wait to see what March has in store for us. I’m hoping for lots of SNOW!
3/1/2020 05:51:24 pm
No. No. Snow. Not. Just. A. Little
3/1/2020 08:07:29 pm
Terry in Harlan KY
3/1/2020 09:48:32 pm
Man, I was 10 years old when the both terrific and infamous 93 Super Storm dumped on SE KY and East TN. I will never forget that storm as we rarely get 6 inch snow storms these days, let alone 30 inches with drifts over 6 ft! Although not very common, March and even early April can deliver snow, large events at that!
3/1/2020 11:06:28 pm
I remember the blizzard of 93 I was stuck at home with my two teenage sons no power no food but still had phone service we had to dig our way out of our home because the snow was so deep so we decided to walk to the store only a couple of miles down hill well the snow was so deep you could barely move knee high but we made it ok but coming back was the night mare going back up the hill but finally made it but was out of power for a week this was in Pigeon Forge
3/2/2020 09:04:54 am
I say let it snow!! You’re ALWAYS right Captain Accurate and I can’t wait ! 😊 ❄️ ❄️ ❄️
3/2/2020 02:27:31 pm
I have never heard of Captain Accurate before, but I will be sure to follow now. I believe you amd hope you are CORRECT!!! I remember '93 very well and loved it! Also when I was about 14, i guess around "86, in April it snowed a out 6". I have been telling everyone that March is going to bring us a big snow but no one believes me. I read the Farmer's Almanac the other day and it said around the middle if March there will be a significant amount of snow. And I do believe in the Almanac! Glad I ran upon this amd will be keeping up with you.
3/2/2020 08:48:12 pm
Praying for a blizzard. We got snow suits for Christmas. Would love to use them. Bring it... just saying
3/3/2020 07:44:57 am
David, where are you now? We miss seeing your weather reports.
3/3/2020 09:57:26 am
You can’t pay attention to a model run that says that. Here’s what he was showing that was on the morning run of the GFS model Sunday morning. None of the models was showing it and most importantly when you run the GFS ensembles 20 plus times it doesn’t come back with this result. If a models ensembles don’t agree then it’s false. Not sure why he mentioned it unless he was actually the one wanting clickbait because now this image is circulating on social media even though he says he’s against clickbait, he’s created clickbait! This particular model during winter shows imaginary storms almost on a weekly basis lol
4/28/2020 02:55:22 am
Actually, I really trust your weather forecast. I know that you have been here for almost years now, that's why I am looking forward for every forecast that you make. I have always been a fan of your forecast because most of the time, you are saying the right stuff. Your predictions are not just based on your observation, but there will always be a science reference to everything that you do. By the way, I am looking forward to see more.
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