Be prepared to be "Horseshoed" late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
And if you get a "Ringer," according to the game of Horseshoes, that's worth 3 points: Plateau, Valley & Smokies, the least snowy will be the Valley.
This starts as RAIN, folks. The question is... "how quickly will it changeover?" The answer depends on your elevation.
NAM model today turns RAIN to SNOW in Knoxville & the Valley around 2 AM Tuesday
GFS model today turns RAIN to SNOW in Knoxville & the Valley around 3 AM Tuesday
In classic model style, 2.5 to 3 days away from the start of the event, there are snowfall accumulation differences.
NAM model brings Knoxville & the Valley 0.10" of rain, then flurries
GFS model brings Knoxville & the Valley 0.25" of rain, then snow falls, about 1 to 2" worth, but significantly less actually sticks.
Stay tuned. The Plateau, Southeast KY, the Tri-Cities and the Smokies could easily pick up 0.5 to 3" of snow or more in spots...due to higher elevation...and colder air.
But as I wrote yesterday...
"BOTTOM LINE? This data will change again and again and again and again until the event. So, stay tuned."